Local election results: Who won? And what it means for a general election

May 03, 2024

The Conservatives are on track for their worst local election results ever - as counting continues.

In a strong showing for Labour, the party has taken control of a string of Leave-voting councils and won the Blackpool South by-election.

It's a bleaker outlook for the Tories, who in some areas have been pushed into third place by Reform UK.

As the count continues, here's what you need to know about where the major parties stand.

Labour

"Labour is on the march", according to Sky News' political correspondent Tamara Cohen.

Labour won the Blackpool South by-election. Labour candidate Chris Webb will become the area's new MP, taking over from former Conservative member Scott Benton.

While the result had been largely expected, Sir Keir Starmer hailed Labour's 58.9% vote share as a "seismic" victory and called it the "most important" result of Thursday's elections.

Sky News' chief political correspondent Jon Craig said that assessment was right: "After all, this was a parliamentary election, not the pavements and potholes of town hall elections, and produced a damning verdict on Rishi Sunak and his government."

Labour won Rushmoor in Hampshire from the Conservatives for the first time and also gained Redditch from the Tories.

In a blow to Labour, it lost Oldham to no overall control.

Hartlepool and Thurrock were both gained by Labour from no overall control.

Labour held on to Sunderland Council and kept control of South Tyneside, Chorley and Newcastle.

The party replaced the Tories as the largest party on Peterborough Council which, while remaining under no overall control, saw the Conservatives lose 13 of the 16 seats they were defending.

Labour picked up eight seats in Adur council, in West Sussex, enough to win the party its first majority there, while the Tories lost seven and overall control.

Labour lost seats in some of its more traditional areas where there is a high Muslim population, such as Newcastle, with critics putting the failures down to the party's positioning on the conflict in Gaza.

It held on to Blackburn with Darwen, despite a surge in support for independents amid local concern among Muslim voters over the party's stance on Gaza.

Labour held Rochdale despite George Galloway's bid for gains. It lost just one seat of the 15 it was defending, which was picked up by Mr Galloway's Workers Party along with a seat lost by an independent councillor.

In Manchester, however, Labour deputy leader of the council Luthfur Rahman lost his seat to Shahbaz Sarwar of the Workers Party.

Labour's Kim McGuinness won the North East mayoralty, becoming the region's first ever mayor.

In another first, Labour's Claire Ward became the East Midlands Mayor, defeating Conservative Ben Bradley by more than 50,000 votes.

The party also won the York and North Yorkshire mayoral race - which covers Rishi Sunak's constituency of Richmond.

Conservatives

The results overnight showed the Conservatives are "in serious trouble", with what could be "one of the party's worst ever performances", according to Sky News' election analyst Professor Michael Thrasher.

The Conservative vote was down most - versus 2021 - in areas that voted Leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum.

However they managed to clinch the Tees Valley mayoral race, with incumbent Tory mayor Lord Ben Houchen taking 53.8% of the vote.

Labour had been hoping to win the seat, with a victory there a huge prize for the party and a sign of progress.

The Conservatives managed to keep control of Harlow in Essex by a single seat, bucking predictions it would swing to Labour.

Sir Keir Starmer had visited the constituency multiple times, in a clear sign of its importance. The Tories said the result showed there was "no love" for the Labour leader.

But elsewhere in Essex, the Tories lost 13 councillors in Basildon, while in Castle Point they were wiped out entirely, losing every seat they were contesting.

The party also held on to Fareham in Hampshire.

The Conservatives lost control of North East Lincolnshire after Labour won five of the seats up for grabs - with neither party now holding a majority on the council.

The Tories have also lost 11 seats at Cannock Chase, with Labour winning the same number and gaining control of the council.

Reform UK

Reform UK is performing well, racking up an average vote share of between 14% and 15%.

The party has pushed the Conservatives into third place in some areas, including Sunderland.

However, it isn't fielding candidates everywhere - instead targeting Leave seats where its predecessors, the Brexit Party and UKIP, performed well - and has yet to win a seat or council for itself.

"Close comparisons of change in vote share demonstrate that support for Reform is real and will hurt the Conservatives if played out at the next general election," Prof Thrasher said.

Lib Dems

Despite losing a seat, the Liberal Democrats kept control of Gosport council.

They also retained control in Winchester, Eastleigh and Fareham.

The party gained overall control of Tunbridge Wells as the Conservatives lost four seats in their former stronghold, giving Sir Ed Davey's party 22 of the 39 seats.

Greens

The Greens have gained 13 councillors, more than doubling their tally of seats in councils that have counted already.

The party won a number of seats from Labour in Newcastle although Labour retained control.

The Greens fell narrowly short of taking overall control of Bristol, one of their top targets, despite gaining 10 seats.

The party now has 34 of the 70 seats there.

Independents

Castle Point in Essex is now completely made up of independent councillors - 39 in total.

Independents already had control, but there are now no Tory councillors.

Police and crime commissioner elections

In total, 37 police and crime commissioners are being elected across England and Wales - although two of those PCC roles are being absorbed into a mayor's responsibilities, in South Yorkshire and York & North Yorkshire.

The first results came in overnight and more are expected from lunchtime on Friday, with the last results not due until 4pm on Sunday.

Labour has so far gained nine PCCs from the Conservatives: Avon & Somerset, Bedfordshire, Cleveland, Cumbria, Derbyshire, Lancashire, Norfolk, Northamptonshire and Nottinghamshire.

What does it mean for a general election?

The overall picture is "complicated", according to Sky News elections analyst professor Michael Thrasher.

The Conservative vote has "collapsed" since 2021 and Labour has made huge gains.

But since 2023, the vote change is rather static, with the Labour vote rising "minutely".

Professor Thrasher completely rejected the Tory argument that the results are normal for a party in midterm.

"[This] is very bad news for the Conservatives because their general election victory in 2019 was built on winning the support of people who had strongly voted Leave in the [EU] referendum," he said.

But the votes overnight show that "in areas that voted most strongly for leave, the Conservative vote has fallen almost 18 percentage points".

That shows that the Leave vote is leaving the Tories - some of which is going to Labour, and some to Reform UK.

Based on local election figures, Sky News projects Labour is on course to be the largest party in parliament - but falls short of a Commons majority by 32 seats.

Professor Thrasher concluded: "If the Conservative fall as low as these council elections so far appear to be telling us, then we're in a situation that we were in (back) in 1997, where the Conservative vote fell so far down that they were almost annihilated.

"The same fate awaits the Conservatives at the next general election if their vote slides this far below, say, 30% in a general election."

When can we expect more results?

Mayoral results are expected through Friday with the London outcome to be announced Saturday - keep track of the results here.

Labour's Sadiq Khan is hoping to win a record third term as the mayor of London, running against the Conservative's Susan Hall, with 25 seats on the London Assembly also up for grabs.

More councils will start declaring around Friday lunchtime after daytime counting picks up in the morning.

The results for most councils will be in by Friday night.

Salford is the final council due to declare on Sunday afternoon.

Follow our live coverage of the election results throughout the weekend - find the full details here.

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